MISSBrier 0.038

No evidence found of major European banks (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Santander, UniCredit) announcing credit loss provisions or risk assessments related to Middle East/energy sector exposure during March 11 - April 10, 2026 period. Web search within evidence window returned 0 results for relevant bank announcements. Target: ≥1 bank announcement. Actual: 0 announcements found.

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Geopolitical

BNP

At least one major European bank (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Santander, or UniCredit) will announce credit loss provisions or risk assessment updates related to Middle East or energy sector exposure within 30 days as Iran nuclear instability creates banking sector stress testing

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 19% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.038.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis showing 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) and 20% escalation probability. European banks have significant Middle East trade finance and energy sector exposure. Compound probability: P(Iran escalation) * P(bank provisions response) = 0.20 * 0.80 = 0.16, but base rate for major bank risk announcements during geopolitical stress is ~65%

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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