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NEXUS

Connect world events to market decisions. Research the evidence, test your thesis, and follow the outcome.

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Track Record

MISSBrier 0.015

Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

Resolved Apr 24, 2026

Market

LONGRH

Rhodium futures will trade above $4,800 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed oil field attacks and Iran nuclear commitment problems create supply chain disruption fears for automotive catalysts

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 12% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-24. Brier score 0.015.

Derived from: Knowledge bank confirming Iranian attacks on regional oil fields, Bayesian Iran analysis showing structural commitment problems (Fearon failure), and rhodium's role in automotive supply chains vulnerable to Middle East disruptions

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 16166d ago
Made: Mar 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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