Israel or the United States will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear-linked facility or asset within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 54% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-14.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) structurally favors conflict per the Bayesian assessment, though the modeled escalation probability is only 20%, anchoring confidence toward the lower end of the structural-risk range.

Probability: 54%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 14in 15d
Made: Sep 14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will maintain its current production quotas unchanged, announcing no new production cut, at its next ministerial meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

The United States will announce a new economic, trade, or export-control restriction targeting Chinese firms or entities linked to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

The IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

geopolitical14%

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Israel or the United States will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear-linked facility or asset within 30 days.

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