MISSBrier 0.022

Search during March 19-26, 2026 evidence window found no reports of Iran announcing suspension of uranium enrichment activities or accepting expanded international monitoring. No relevant articles were found within the prediction timeframe despite searches for Iran nuclear developments, IAEA monitoring, and uranium enrichment activities. Actual announcements found: 0, Required: 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Geopolitical

Iran

Iran will announce suspension of uranium enrichment activities or accept international monitoring expansion within 7 days as Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window convergence creates diplomatic opening despite Bayesian analysis indicating structural conflict likelihood

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 15% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.022.

Derived from: Vernal Equinox + Nowruz convergence signal active today. Iran Nuclear Breakout scenario shows 0% Fearon bargaining range but 20% escalation probability suggests 80% chance of diplomatic continuation. Cultural significance of Nowruz provides face-saving opportunity for policy shifts.

Probability: 15%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 26187d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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