PARTIALBrier 0.474

Search found general shipping disruption reports (Flexport: 'Middle East Escalation Disrupts Global Ocean and Air Freight Networks' March 27; Maersk Red Sea situation update March 27; Arab News on Asian container shipping March 18) but no specific announcements by named major Asian shipping companies of new route suspensions within the March 24-31 window. Reports discuss ongoing disruptions but lack specific company suspension announcements. Actual: 0 specific company announcements found, Required: at least 2 companies, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 major Asian shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz route suspensions within 7 days as zero-Nash equilibria scenarios in Iran nuclear talks create insurance premium spikes

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-24 at 69% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-31. Brier score 0.474.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran nuclear breakout at 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure), meaning no stable diplomatic equilibrium exists. Live intelligence shows sustained Red Sea Houthi shipping disruptions. Taiwan Strait tensions at 53% escalation add Asian route pressure.

Probability: 69%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 31182d ago
Made: Mar 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least 2 major Asian shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz route suspensions within 7 days as zero-Nash equilibria scenarios in Iran nuclear talks create insurance premium spikes

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