MISSBrier 0.363

Web search within evidence window (March 24 - April 7, 2026) found general market commentary and investment articles but no specific announcements from major sovereign wealth funds regarding portfolio rebalancing or risk reduction measures. Articles discussed market conditions and investment opportunities but no SWF-specific rebalancing announcements. Actual: 0 SWF announcements, Required: at least 3, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 9, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 3 major sovereign wealth funds will announce portfolio rebalancing or risk reduction measures within 14 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios create institutional defensiveness

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-24 at 60% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-09. Brier score 0.363.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout and US-China Trade War both show zero Nash equilibria (Fearon failure), indicating structural instability. Reference class 'policy_action/geopolitical' shows 77% hit rate but with -37pp confidence gap suggesting systematic underconfidence. SWFs are logical first movers ahead of broader institutional repricing.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

At least one major insurance company will announce increased premiums or coverage restrictions for Middle East shipping routes within 30 days as Iran's wartime escalation creates actuarial repricing of maritime risk

geopolitical74%HIT

Brazil will announce at least one major defense procurement or military cooperation agreement within 30 days as BRICS realignment accelerates amid US-China trade war Fearon bargaining failure

geopolitical60%MISS

Philippines will announce at least one significant defense infrastructure expansion or US military cooperation enhancement within 14 days as South China Sea tensions escalate during gray zone conflict scenario

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At least 3 major sovereign wealth funds will announce portfolio rebalancing or risk reduction measures within 14 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios create institutional defensiveness

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