HITBrier 0.069

Multiple sources within evidence window (March 24 - April 23) confirm insurance premium increases and coverage restrictions: 'War risk insurance costs surge for Middle East offshore projects' (April 22), 'War risk insurance cost off highs but still elevated in Persian Gulf' (March 30), and 'India plans sovereign guarantees for insurers as Iran war heightens shipping risks' (April 7). The April 22 Upstream Online article specifically mentions surging war risk insurance costs for Middle East projects, and the March 30 S&P Global article confirms elevated war risk insurance costs in Persian Gulf. These constitute announcements of increased premiums for Middle East shipping routes by insurance industry. Actual: Multiple confirmed announcements, Required: At least 1, threshold met.

Resolved Apr 23, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major insurance company will announce increased premiums or coverage restrictions for Middle East shipping routes within 30 days as Iran's wartime escalation creates actuarial repricing of maritime risk

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-24 at 74% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-23. Brier score 0.069.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has zero bargaining range (Fearon failure) with 20% escalation probability despite structural conflict conditions. Multiple pending predictions already cover shipping route suspensions, but insurance repricing is the upstream driver that forces operational changes. Wartime regime with active conflict justifies high confidence for direct supply chain impact predictions.

Probability: 74%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 23159d ago
Made: Mar 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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At least one major insurance company will announce increased premiums or coverage restrictions for Middle East shipping routes within 30 days as Iran's wartime escalation creates actuarial repricing of maritime risk

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