MISSBrier 0.352

Search within evidence window 2026-03-23 to 2026-04-06 found general semiconductor industry news but NO announcements of production guidance revisions or supply chain contingency measures by major companies. Headlines mention Taiwan defense buildup and supply chain risks, but no specific corporate announcements of guidance revisions or contingency measures. Actual: 0 companies, Required: 2 companies, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 major semiconductor companies will announce production guidance revisions or supply chain contingency measures within 14 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with fragile Bayesian equilibrium create industry-wide risk assessment

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 59% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.352.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Bayesian analysis shows fragile equilibrium with 53% escalation probability. Knowledge bank confirms semiconductor supply chain disruption concerns. Policy action reference class shows 75% hit rate but with -34pp confidence gap, adjusting downward.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 6176d ago
Made: Mar 23

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least 2 major semiconductor companies will announce production guidance revisions or supply chain contingency measures within 14 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with fragile Bayesian equilibrium create industry-wide risk assessment

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