MISSBrier 0.294

No OPEC emergency production meeting or unilateral production adjustments announced within the March 19 to April 2 window. Search results show routine production updates (OPEC crude up 164k bpd in February reported March 11) and general oil market commentary, but no emergency meetings or adjustments in response to Iran nuclear situation. Timeline: March 19 + 14 days = April 2 deadline. Actual: 0 emergency actions, Required: 1+ emergency actions, threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Geopolitical

OPEC will announce emergency production meeting or unilateral production adjustments within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) forces energy market intervention

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 54% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.294.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) indicating structural conflict likelihood. OPEC historically intervenes when geopolitical supply disruption probability exceeds 60%. Current Strait of Hormuz escalation probability at 67%.

Probability: 54%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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OPEC will announce emergency production meeting or unilateral production adjustments within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) forces energy market intervention

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