MISSBrier 0.113

No evidence found of Pakistan imposing capital controls or announcing major foreign exchange restrictions between March 19-26, 2026. Web search yielded no relevant results within the evidence window. The prediction required at least one such announcement within 7 days, but none occurred.

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Geopolitical

PKR

Pakistan will impose capital controls or announce major foreign exchange restrictions within 7 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with Day of the Sun creating currency defense pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.113.

Derived from: Mars-Saturn Conjunction + Day of the Sun (DPRK) convergence on April 14, actor intelligence showing Pakistan Military maintaining aggressive posture with international criticism, and pattern of emerging market FX controls during geopolitical stress periods

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 26187d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Pakistan will announce at least one major military operation or cross-border action within 7 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with regional instability and Pakistan Military maintains aggressive posture toward Afghanistan

geopolitical18%MISS

Pakistani Rupee (USD/PKR) will weaken above 290.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction (April 14) coincides with Pakistan Military escalation patterns and current account pressure from elevated defense spending

market65%MISS

Pakistani Rupiah (USD/PKR) will weaken past 285 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Pakistan Military faces international pressure over Kabul airstrikes and regional instability drives emerging market currency stress

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Pakistan will impose capital controls or announce major foreign exchange restrictions within 7 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with Day of the Sun creating currency defense pressure

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