MISSBrier 0.308

GDELT unavailable. Web search within evidence window March 19 to April 2, 2026 found only 2 results: EU revenue from Russian assets for Ukraine support (April 1) and EU Industrial Accelerator Act (March 19). Neither describes new defense procurement or military cooperation agreements by specific member states. Actual: 0 member states confirmed, Required: at least 3 states, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 3 European Union member states will announce new defense procurement or military cooperation agreements within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine endgame negotiations create rearmament urgency

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 55% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.308.

Derived from: Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Bayesian analysis shows 50% bargaining range with Russia negotiating from strength and US pushing settlement. European defense cooperation base rate 25% per month, elevated by war endgame dynamics requiring autonomous capability.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least 3 European Union member states will announce new defense procurement or military cooperation agreements within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine endgame negotiations create rearmament urgency

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