MISSBrier 0.040

No evidence of Iranian naval exercises or military maneuvers in Strait of Hormuz within the specified timeframe. Search results show ongoing naval conflict and strategic discussions about the Strait, but no specific Iranian naval exercises or maneuvers between March 19-26, 2026. Articles discuss Iranian naval capabilities being 'largely gone' and describe the Strait as a 'kill box' but no new exercises announced or conducted. Actual: 0 exercises, Required: 1+ exercises, threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

Iran will conduct at least one naval exercise or military maneuver in the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with Day of the Sun and Fearon bargaining failure creates incentive for brinkmanship displays

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 20% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.040.

Derived from: Mars-Saturn Conjunction intensity 4/5 signal on 2026-04-14 coinciding with Day of the Sun (DPRK), plus Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis showing 0% Fearon bargaining range indicating structural conflict conditions

Probability: 20%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 26187d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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At least 3 European Union member states will announce new defense procurement or military cooperation agreements within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine endgame negotiations create rearmament urgency

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DPRK will conduct at least one ballistic missile test within 14 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with Day of the Sun (April 14) and actor intelligence shows sustained aggressive posture

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Iran will conduct at least one naval exercise or military maneuver in the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with Day of the Sun and Fearon bargaining failure creates incentive for brinkmanship displays

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