DPRK will conduct at least one ballistic missile test within 14 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with Day of the Sun (April 14) and actor intelligence shows sustained aggressive posture
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 29% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.504.
Derived from: Mars-Saturn Conjunction + Day of the Sun convergence April 14 (intensity 4/5). Actor intelligence shows North Korea 'demonstrating sustained aggressive posture through coordinated multi-missile launches.' Historical base rate nuclear test 15% per year, adjusted up for convergence timing. Game theory shows DPRK-US scenario most likely 'ICBM launch' with 50% confidence.
- Probability
- 29%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Apr 2180d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .