HITBrier 0.504

Multiple sources confirm North Korea conducted ballistic missile tests during the evidence window. Reuters reported March 14: 'North Korea fires 10 ballistic missiles during US-South Korea military drills.' Additional tests confirmed March 15-16 with 'North Korea Launches Massive Ballistic Missile Barrage.' PBS reported March 29: 'North Korea conducts engine test for missile capable of reaching U.S. mainland.' At least 3 separate missile test events occurred within the prediction window. Actual: Multiple tests, Required: At least 1, threshold met.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Geopolitical

DPRK will conduct at least one ballistic missile test within 14 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with Day of the Sun (April 14) and actor intelligence shows sustained aggressive posture

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 29% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.504.

Derived from: Mars-Saturn Conjunction + Day of the Sun convergence April 14 (intensity 4/5). Actor intelligence shows North Korea 'demonstrating sustained aggressive posture through coordinated multi-missile launches.' Historical base rate nuclear test 15% per year, adjusted up for convergence timing. Game theory shows DPRK-US scenario most likely 'ICBM launch' with 50% confidence.

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Iran will announce suspension of uranium enrichment activities or agree to international inspections within 14 days as the Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range) forces emergency diplomatic intervention ahead of the Vernal Equinox convergence

geopolitical18%MISS

Iran will conduct at least one naval exercise or military maneuver in the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with Day of the Sun and Fearon bargaining failure creates incentive for brinkmanship displays

geopolitical20%MISS

China will announce at least one major infrastructure stimulus package or Belt and Road Initiative expansion within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation reaches Nash equilibrium requiring economic stabilization

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DPRK will conduct at least one ballistic missile test within 14 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction converges with Day of the Sun (April 14) and actor intelligence shows sustained aggressive posture

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