MISSBrier 0.032

Search results within the evidence window show continued nuclear tensions but no announcements of uranium enrichment suspension or agreements to international inspections. Results include articles about Iran's nuclear program mysteries and continued enrichment activities, but no diplomatic breakthroughs or suspension announcements matching the prediction criteria.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Geopolitical

Iran will announce suspension of uranium enrichment activities or agree to international inspections within 14 days as the Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range) forces emergency diplomatic intervention ahead of the Vernal Equinox convergence

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 18% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.032.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) indicating structural conditions favor conflict, but 20% escalation probability suggests diplomatic off-ramps remain. Emergency diplomatic intervention base rate 10% per quarter, elevated by crisis conditions.

Probability: 18%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Iran will announce suspension of uranium enrichment activities or agree to international inspections within 14 days as the Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range) forces emergency diplomatic intervention ahead of the Vernal Equinox convergence

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