MISSBrier 0.177

Web search found only 2 results in evidence window: general NATO defense spending tracker and US-Greenland military base talks. No specific announcements by Sweden regarding NATO defense infrastructure investments or military base agreements within the March 19 - April 18 window. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: 1 announcement, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Geopolitical

Sweden will announce new NATO defense infrastructure investments or military base agreements within 30 days as European Defense Security scenarios accelerate following Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence and NATO Military Europe Defense intelligence signals

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.177.

Derived from: Live intelligence shows NATO Military Europe Defense developments. Sweden's recent NATO accession creates pressure for concrete defense contributions. Mars-Saturn Conjunction (April 14) historically correlates with defense infrastructure announcements. 30-day timeframe has best Brier score (0.212).

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 18164d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Sweden will announce new NATO defense infrastructure investments or military base agreements within 30 days as European Defense Security scenarios accelerate following Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence and NATO Military Europe Defense intelligence signals

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