The Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) will trade above 160.00 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Iran nuclear negotiations fail and energy import costs pressure the yen amid BOJ policy constraints

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 57% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-29. Brier score 0.188.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure), 20% escalation probability, and no stable equilibria. Current USD/JPY at 158.27, already near highs. Energy import dependency during Middle East instability historically pressures yen. Base rate for major FX moves 1.5%+ is 64% per week, but reduced confidence due to calibration feedback showing overconfidence in 65-80% band.

Probability

57%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 17165d ago

Made

Mar 18

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.