USD/JPY will trade above 152.00 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Japan's energy import dependency during Hormuz brinkmanship scenario (70% confidence) creates yen weakness pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 38% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.388.

Derived from: Hormuz closure scenario resolving to diplomatic brinkmanship (70% confidence) creates energy supply uncertainty. Japan's critical energy import dependency noted in actor intelligence updates makes yen vulnerable to energy chokepoint scenarios.

Probability

38%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 8174d ago

Made

Mar 9

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.