Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) will weaken above 160.00 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% forces Japan to choose between energy security and regional stability, creating currency pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-21 at 64% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-28. Brier score 0.404.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis shows 53% escalation probability with narrow 25% bargaining range. Japan Government intelligence shows increased military investment and US alliance integration. Energy import dependency during potential chokepoint disruptions creates yen weakness pressure.

Probability

64%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Mar 28185d ago

Made

Mar 21

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.