HITBrier 0.336

Early-confirmed: USDJPY hit target above 152 on 2026-03-09, 2026-03-10, 2026-03-11. Current price: 158.27 (started at 157.82).

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSDJPY

USD/JPY will trade above 152.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as safe-haven flows paradoxically strengthen dollar while yen weakness persists amid Bank of Japan policy constraints

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 42% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.336.

Derived from: 80% geopolitical escalation risk score + Fear/Greed index at 30 creating dollar safe-haven flows + BoJ yield curve control constraints limiting yen strength

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 23190d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$152

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/JPY will trade above 152.00 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Japan's energy import dependency during Hormuz brinkmanship scenario (70% confidence) creates yen weakness pressure

market38%HIT

USD/JPY will trade below 140.00 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium games (Iran nuclear, US-China trade) drive safe-haven demand for yen while geopolitical uncertainty reduces carry trade appeal

market72%MISS

The Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) will trade above 160.00 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Iran nuclear negotiations fail and energy import costs pressure the yen amid BOJ policy constraints

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USD/JPY will trade above 152.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as safe-haven flows paradoxically strengthen dollar while yen weakness persists amid Bank of Japan policy constraints

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