USD/JPY will trade below 140.00 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium games (Iran nuclear, US-China trade) drive safe-haven demand for yen while geopolitical uncertainty reduces carry trade appeal

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Iran-Nuclear game theory showing zero Nash equilibria (unstable, drives safe haven flows) + US-China Trade War game theory also showing zero Nash equilibria + Bank of Japan reaction function in knowledge bank showing yen strength during risk-off periods

Probability

72%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 8174d ago

Made

Mar 9

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.