Malaysian Ringgit (USD/MYR) will trade above 4.75 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint vulnerability during Iran nuclear instability creates currency weakness in the world's narrowest major shipping lane

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 59% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.354.

Derived from: Strait of Malacca chokepoint analysis (16M barrels/day transit, 2.8km width at Phillips Channel) + Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis showing 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) + 20% escalation probability. Compound probability: P(Iran escalation impacts shipping) * P(MYR weakness | shipping disruption) = 0.2 * 0.8 = 0.16, adjusted upward for base rate calibration

Probability

59%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.