Israeli Shekel (USD/ILS) will strengthen below 3.55 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure paradoxically triggers safe-haven flows into Israeli assets ahead of potential preemptive action

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 10% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-03. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Bayesian Iran Nuclear analysis showing 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) with structural conflict conditions. Counter-intuitive trade: shekel strengthens when military action probability rises due to US aid flows and regional flight-to-quality into Israeli tech/defense sectors.

Probability

10%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Apr 3179d ago

Made

Mar 20

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.