MISSBrier 0.087

Web search for Iran ballistic missile tests during March 18-25, 2026 evidence window returned only 2 unrelated results about US military statements and airline incidents. No evidence found of Iran conducting ballistic missile tests during the prediction period. Actual: 0 tests, Required: at least 1 test, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Geopolitical

Iran will conduct at least one ballistic missile test within 7 days as nuclear breakout Bayesian analysis shows 'Fearon bargaining failure' with 0% bargaining range

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 29% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.087.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory section shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has '0% bargaining range (FEARON FAILURE - conflict structurally likely)' with 'no stable equilibrium exists'. Knowledge bank shows 'Iran will announce at least one major military deployment' prediction. Base rate: military demonstrations during failed diplomacy ~60%

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Iran will conduct at least one ballistic missile test within 7 days as nuclear breakout Bayesian analysis shows 'Fearon bargaining failure' with 0% bargaining range

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