Iran will conduct at least one ballistic missile test within 7 days as nuclear breakout Bayesian analysis shows 'Fearon bargaining failure' with 0% bargaining range
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 29% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.087.
Derived from: Bayesian game theory section shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has '0% bargaining range (FEARON FAILURE - conflict structurally likely)' with 'no stable equilibrium exists'. Knowledge bank shows 'Iran will announce at least one major military deployment' prediction. Base rate: military demonstrations during failed diplomacy ~60%
- Probability
- 29%
- Timeframe
- 7 days
- Deadline
- Mar 25188d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.