MISSBrier 0.031

Search found 8 articles about European energy issues during evidence window (2026-03-18 to 2026-04-01), including articles about energy crisis, sanctions, and LNG developments. However, none specifically mention EU member states announcing new strategic energy reserve expansions or alternative supply agreements. Articles discuss general energy security concerns and sanctions but no specific announcements meeting the prediction criteria. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 2, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 1, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 European Union member states will announce new strategic energy reserve expansions or alternative supply agreements within 14 days as the approach to Vernal Equinox convergence intensifies energy security positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 18% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-01. Brier score 0.031.

Derived from: Vernal Equinox + Iran Assessment Window convergence on 2026-03-19 with intensity 3/5. European Energy Security game theory scenario shows 70% confidence in EU accelerating renewables. Knowledge bank shows helium supply chain concerns in Malaysia affecting chipmakers, indicating broader supply chain stress. Base rate for energy policy announcements by G7 is 30% per month, but applying calibration feedback reducing confidence by ~15pp from initial estimate.

Probability: 18%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 1181d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Iran will conduct at least one ballistic missile test within 7 days as nuclear breakout Bayesian analysis shows 'Fearon bargaining failure' with 0% bargaining range

geopolitical29%MISS

Hezbollah will conduct at least 3 rocket attacks on Israeli territory within 7 days as actor intelligence shows sustained offensive operations with explicit commitment to prolonged conflict

geopolitical10%MISS

Japanese Government will announce at least one new energy security initiative or nuclear expansion policy within 30 days as actor intelligence shows energy security pursuit through nuclear expansion despite public resistance

geopolitical

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At least 2 European Union member states will announce new strategic energy reserve expansions or alternative supply agreements within 14 days as the approach to Vernal Equinox convergence intensifies energy security positioning

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