MISSBrier 0.011

Web search for Hezbollah rocket attacks during March 18-25, 2026 evidence window found 2 results: one about Netanyahu statements saying 'Hezbollah is no longer what it was' and another about Israeli tank fire on UN positions. No specific evidence of Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israeli territory during the prediction period. Actual: 0 confirmed attacks, Required: at least 3 attacks, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Geopolitical

Hezbollah will conduct at least 3 rocket attacks on Israeli territory within 7 days as actor intelligence shows sustained offensive operations with explicit commitment to prolonged conflict

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.011.

Derived from: Actor intelligence update confirms Hezbollah has transitioned from defensive posture to sustained offensive operations, launching multiple rocket attacks on Israel and signaling commitment to prolonged conflict with demonstrated willingness to absorb strikes.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Hezbollah will conduct at least 3 rocket attacks on Israeli territory within 7 days as actor intelligence shows sustained offensive operations with explicit commitment to prolonged conflict

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