Israel will conduct a new confirmed airstrike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear-linked facility within 30 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-16.
Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, 'conflict structurally likely') with 20% escalation probability and critical fracture risk in the Iran-Israel coalition; distinct from pending prediction covering non-nuclear-linked strikes.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 16in 17d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.