Israel will conduct a new confirmed airstrike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear-linked facility within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-16.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, 'conflict structurally likely') with 20% escalation probability and critical fracture risk in the Iran-Israel coalition; distinct from pending prediction covering non-nuclear-linked strikes.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 16in 17d
Made: Sep 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will conduct a new significant gray-zone military incursion (naval blockade drill, large air incursion, or similar) near Taiwan within 14 days

geopolitical85%

India and Pakistan will engage in a new confirmed cross-border military exchange (shelling, airstrike, or drone strike) in the Kashmir region within 30 days

geopolitical85%

Russia and Ukraine will hold or announce a new direct ceasefire or negotiation session within 30 days

geopolitical74%

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Israel will conduct a new confirmed airstrike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear-linked facility within 30 days

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