China will conduct a new significant gray-zone military incursion (naval blockade drill, large air incursion, or similar) near Taiwan within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis: dominant equilibrium is 'China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence' at p=100% confidence, escalation probability 53%, coalition stability only 30% with critical fracture risk — structural conditions favor continued gray-zone activity.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

India and Pakistan will engage in a new confirmed cross-border military exchange (shelling, airstrike, or drone strike) in the Kashmir region within 30 days

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Israel will conduct a new confirmed airstrike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear-linked facility within 30 days

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Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ will formally announce a production cut of at least 500,000 bpd at their scheduled December ministerial meeting

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North Korea will conduct a new confirmed test of a maritime or submarine-launched nuclear-capable weapons system within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

China will conduct a new significant gray-zone military incursion (naval blockade drill, large air incursion, or similar) near Taiwan within 14 days

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