China will conduct a new significant gray-zone military incursion (naval blockade drill, large air incursion, or similar) near Taiwan within 14 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.
Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis: dominant equilibrium is 'China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence' at p=100% confidence, escalation probability 53%, coalition stability only 30% with critical fracture risk — structural conditions favor continued gray-zone activity.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 30in 1d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.