India and Pakistan will engage in a new confirmed cross-border military exchange (shelling, airstrike, or drone strike) in the Kashmir region within 30 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-16.
Nash equilibrium analysis flags India-Pakistan Kashmir Escalation with mixed strategy 'US chooses Surgical strikes; China chooses Accept international mediation' at 70% confidence, indicating active but unresolved friction; reference class binary_event/geopolitical base rate ~55% anchors moderate confidence.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 16in 17d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.