India and Pakistan will engage in a new confirmed cross-border military exchange (shelling, airstrike, or drone strike) in the Kashmir region within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-16.

Nash equilibrium analysis flags India-Pakistan Kashmir Escalation with mixed strategy 'US chooses Surgical strikes; China chooses Accept international mediation' at 70% confidence, indicating active but unresolved friction; reference class binary_event/geopolitical base rate ~55% anchors moderate confidence.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 16in 17d
Made: Sep 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will conduct a new significant gray-zone military incursion (naval blockade drill, large air incursion, or similar) near Taiwan within 14 days

geopolitical85%

Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ will formally announce a production cut of at least 500,000 bpd at their scheduled December ministerial meeting

geopolitical51%

Israel will conduct a new confirmed airstrike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear-linked facility within 30 days

geopolitical85%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed test of a maritime or submarine-launched nuclear-capable weapons system within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

India and Pakistan will engage in a new confirmed cross-border military exchange (shelling, airstrike, or drone strike) in the Kashmir region within 30 days

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture