North Korea will conduct a new confirmed test of a maritime or submarine-launched nuclear-capable weapons system within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-16.

Derived from: North Korea actor intelligence update noting expansion of nuclear doctrine to include maritime capabilities and automated systems; North Korea Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium (ICBM launch / sanctions escalation, mixed, 70% confidence)

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 16in 17d
Made: Sep 16

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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North Korea will conduct a new confirmed test of a maritime or submarine-launched nuclear-capable weapons system within 30 days.

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