China will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure (developer funding support, expanded homebuyer incentives, or local government bond relief) within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 69% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-16.

Derived from: Bayesian China Property/Stimulus Dilemma equilibrium (China chooses Targeted property bailout; markets chooses Long China recovery, mixed, 70% confidence); adjusted above the 20% policy_action base rate given persistent, already-visible property sector distress signals.

Probability: 69%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 16in 17d
Made: Sep 16

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure (developer funding support, expanded homebuyer incentives, or local government bond relief) within 30 days

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