Russia and Ukraine will hold or announce a new direct ceasefire or negotiation session within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 74% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-16.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine Endgame analysis shows sufficient bargaining range (50%), stable equilibrium at 91% probability ('Russia negotiate from strength, US push settlement'), bullish market assessment at 78% confidence.

Probability: 74%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 16in 17d
Made: Sep 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will publicly announce or be confirmed via IAEA reporting to have increased uranium enrichment beyond 90% purity within 30 days

geopolitical5%

The United States federal government will formally advance (file, announce, or escalate) a new antitrust breakup action against a major technology company within 30 days.

geopolitical50%

Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident specifically within the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

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Russia and Ukraine will hold or announce a new direct ceasefire or negotiation session within 30 days

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