MISSBrier 0.096

NOK/USD price data from March 21-28: March 21 high: 0.10467, March 22 high: 0.10461, March 23 high: 0.10450, March 24 high: 0.10359, March 25 high: 0.10335, March 26 high: 0.10384, March 27 high: 0.10350, March 28 high: 0.10304. Highest value was 0.10467 on March 21. Required: above 0.115 on at least 2 days. Actual: 0.10467 < 0.115, therefore threshold NOT met on any day. The NOK actually strengthened from 0.10454 reference to close at 0.10287, moving opposite to predicted weakening direction.

Resolved Mar 28, 2026

Market

LONG wrongNOK/USD

Norwegian Krone (NOK/USD) will weaken above 0.115 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as European energy security fears from Iran Nuclear Breakout scenarios drive safe-haven outflows from energy exporters

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-21 at 31% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-28. Brier score 0.096.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) with 20% escalation probability. European energy security creates paradoxical weakness in NOK despite oil exporter status. Historical pattern: NOK weakened past 11.20 (strengthened from USD perspective) during previous geopolitical stress.

Probability: 31%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 28185d ago
Made: Mar 21

Price Target$0.115

Regime

The Norwegian Krone (NOK/USD) will weaken past 11.20 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European energy security concerns and risk-off positioning outweigh Norway's oil exporter benefit

market19%HIT

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Norwegian Krone (NOK/USD) will weaken above 0.115 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as European energy security fears from Iran Nuclear Breakout scenarios drive safe-haven outflows from energy exporters

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