HITBrier 0.648

Early-confirmed: NOK/USD hit target below 11.2 on 2026-03-10, 2026-03-11. Current price: 0.10 (started at 0.10).

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Market

SHORT correctNOK/USD

The Norwegian Krone (NOK/USD) will weaken past 11.20 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European energy security concerns and risk-off positioning outweigh Norway's oil exporter benefit

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-10 at 19% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.648.

Derived from: European Energy Security scenario (accelerate renewables vs focus on Asian markets, bullish 70% confidence) and Red Sea Shipping Crisis (mixed outcomes, 2 Nash equilibria). Despite oil strength benefiting Norway, broader European uncertainty and risk-off flows create NOK weakness. Historical FX pair moves 1.5%+ occur 12% per week baseline.

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 24189d ago
Made: Mar 10

Price Target$11.2

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Norwegian Krone (NOK/USD) will weaken above 0.115 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as European energy security fears from Iran Nuclear Breakout scenarios drive safe-haven outflows from energy exporters

market31%MISS

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

The Norwegian Krone (NOK/USD) will weaken past 11.20 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European energy security concerns and risk-off positioning outweigh Norway's oil exporter benefit

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture