Israel will conduct a new confirmed airstrike targeting Iranian military infrastructure beyond nuclear-linked facilities within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-15.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structurally favors conflict) combined with IRGC actor intelligence showing active escalation mode and explicit threats, distinct from the existing pending nuclear-facility-specific strike claim.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 15in 16d
Made: Sep 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce a new Strategic Petroleum Reserve release within 30 days

geopolitical37%

Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed strike or direct attack targeting a US military asset or installation in the Middle East region within 14 days

geopolitical85%

A new confirmed escalatory military incident (cross-border strike, shelling, or drone attack) between Indian and Pakistani forces in the Kashmir region will occur within 30 days

geopolitical85%

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Israel will conduct a new confirmed airstrike targeting Iranian military infrastructure beyond nuclear-linked facilities within 30 days

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