Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed strike or direct attack targeting a US military asset or installation in the Middle East region within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-29.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict conditions) combined with IRGC intelligence update noting explicit threats against US infrastructure following senior naval leadership losses.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 29today
Made: Sep 15

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed strike or direct attack targeting a US military asset or installation in the Middle East region within 14 days

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