China will announce a new economic sanction, export restriction, or trade retaliation measure explicitly targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 46% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-15.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis: fragile 25% bargaining range, 53% escalation probability, dominant 'gray zone escalation' actor type for China, coalition stability at 30% with critical fracture risk.

Probability: 46%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 15in 16d
Made: Sep 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The United States will conduct a new confirmed naval transit or Freedom of Navigation Operation through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

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A new confirmed escalatory military incident (cross-border strike, shelling, or drone attack) between Indian and Pakistani forces in the Kashmir region will occur within 30 days

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China will announce a new economic sanction, export restriction, or trade retaliation measure explicitly targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days

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