China will announce a new economic sanction, export restriction, or trade retaliation measure explicitly targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 46% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-15.
Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis: fragile 25% bargaining range, 53% escalation probability, dominant 'gray zone escalation' actor type for China, coalition stability at 30% with critical fracture risk.
- Probability
- 46%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 15in 16d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.