The United States and Russia will hold new direct bilateral talks (below the level of a formal announced summit) on Ukraine ceasefire terms within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-29.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame shows a sufficient 50% bargaining range with 91% probability on 'Russia negotiate from strength; US push negotiated settlement' equilibrium (bullish, confidence 78%), supporting continued diplomatic contact short of a formal summit announcement.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 29today
Made: Sep 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will conduct a new confirmed naval transit or Freedom of Navigation Operation through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

geopolitical85%

China will announce or conduct a new large-scale military exercise in the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

geopolitical57%

OPEC+ will announce a coordinated production cut at its next ministerial meeting within 30 days

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The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law in 2026

geopolitical36%

The United States and Russia will hold new direct bilateral talks (below the level of a formal announced summit) on Ukraine ceasefire terms within 14 days

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