The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law in 2026

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 36% probability. Pending, resolves by 2027-01-01.

Mirrors Polymarket question (crowd YES 20%). Bayesian Crypto Regulatory Clarity scenario shows a bullish equilibrium (US comprehensive legislation, institutional accumulation, 2 equilibria, confidence 70%), supporting a modestly higher probability than the crowd price.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 90 days
Deadline: Jan 1in 94d
Made: Sep 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a coordinated production cut at its next ministerial meeting within 30 days

geopolitical51%

China will announce or conduct a new large-scale military exercise in the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

geopolitical57%

The United States will conduct a new confirmed naval transit or Freedom of Navigation Operation through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

geopolitical85%

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The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law in 2026

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