The United States will conduct a new confirmed naval transit or Freedom of Navigation Operation through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-29.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium (fragile, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk, 25% narrow bargaining range, 53% escalation probability) shows US pursuing 'Economic deterrence' amid China gray-zone escalation; a US transit response is a plausible reciprocal signaling move distinct from pending China-exercise predictions.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 29today
Made: Sep 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The United States will conduct a new confirmed naval transit or Freedom of Navigation Operation through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

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