China will announce or conduct a new large-scale military exercise in the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 57% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-29.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis: China dominant strategy is gray-zone escalation (30% type probability), bargaining range narrow at 25%, coalition stability 30% with critical fracture risk, coinciding with the October 7 anniversary stress window in the signal calendar.

Probability: 57%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 29today
Made: Sep 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China will announce or conduct a new large-scale military exercise in the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

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