Israel will conduct or be publicly reported to have conducted a military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-23.

Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structurally conflict-favoring), corroborated by IRGC actor intelligence describing active escalation following senior naval leadership losses and explicit threats against US infrastructure.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 23in 24d
Made: Sep 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a new publicly reported gray-zone military incursion (naval, air, or coast guard) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

WTI crude oil will trade at or above $135 per barrel at some point during September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil hit (HIGH) $135 in September?' as YES.

geopolitical5%

The United States will conduct a full military invasion of Iran before January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

geopolitical11%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Israel will conduct or be publicly reported to have conducted a military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure within 30 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture