China's PLA will conduct a new publicly reported gray-zone military incursion (naval, air, or coast guard) near Taiwan within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium: China gray zone escalation vs US economic deterrence (p=100%, fragile stability, narrow 25% Fearon bargaining range), consistent with PLA actor intelligence showing sustained elevated operational tempo.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China's PLA will conduct a new publicly reported gray-zone military incursion (naval, air, or coast guard) near Taiwan within 14 days.

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