Israel and Hamas will publicly announce a new or extended ceasefire arrangement within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 59% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-23.

Hamas Intelligence Update notes active ceasefire negotiations in Cairo despite leadership losses; October 7 anniversary convergent signal (intensity 5/5) raises near-term diplomatic and audience-cost pressure to reach an arrangement.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 23in 24d
Made: Sep 23

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will engage in a publicly reported direct or indirect ceasefire/negotiation session within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.

geopolitical85%

China's PLA will conduct a new publicly reported gray-zone military incursion (naval, air, or coast guard) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

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Israel and Hamas will publicly announce a new or extended ceasefire arrangement within 30 days.

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