Israel and Hamas will publicly announce a new or extended ceasefire arrangement within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 59% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-23.
Hamas Intelligence Update notes active ceasefire negotiations in Cairo despite leadership losses; October 7 anniversary convergent signal (intensity 5/5) raises near-term diplomatic and audience-cost pressure to reach an arrangement.
- Probability
- 59%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 23in 24d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.