Russia and Ukraine will engage in a publicly reported direct or indirect ceasefire/negotiation session within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-23.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame shows a stable equilibrium (p=91%) for 'Russia: Negotiate from strength, US: Push negotiated settlement', bargaining range 50% sufficient for agreement, bullish market assessment at 78% confidence.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 23in 24d
Made: Sep 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel and Hamas will publicly announce a new or extended ceasefire arrangement within 30 days.

geopolitical59%

The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.

geopolitical85%

China's PLA will conduct a new publicly reported gray-zone military incursion (naval, air, or coast guard) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

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Russia and Ukraine will engage in a publicly reported direct or indirect ceasefire/negotiation session within 30 days.

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