Japanese Government Bond 10-year yield (JGB10Y) will trade above 1.10% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) drives global bond selloff and BoJ intervention concerns escalate

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 62% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-27. Brier score 0.382.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis showing 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) indicating structural conflict likelihood. No stable equilibrium exists, creating global risk-off bond selling pressure. Japan's energy import dependency during potential Hormuz disruption adds JGB-specific weakness.

Probability: 62%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 19163d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Japanese Government Bond 10-year yield (JGB10Y) will trade below 0.85% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Middle East conflict drives safe haven demand for non-dollar sovereign debt

market61%MISS

Japanese 10-year government bond yields will trade above 1.20% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days

market55%MISS

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Japanese Government Bond 10-year yield (JGB10Y) will trade above 1.10% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) drives global bond selloff and BoJ intervention concerns escalate

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture