Web search found 4 relevant articles within the evidence window including 'Bank of Japan keeps policy rate steady' (Apr 28), 'Japan's 40-year bond yield falls amid BOJ rate cut speculation' (Apr 28), 'Bank of Japan flags economic risks' (Apr 28), and 'Japanese bond yields surge on inflation concerns' (Mar 27). However, no specific daily yield data above 1.20% was found. One article mentioned yields 'falling' and 'rate cut speculation', suggesting yields moved down rather than up. Cannot identify any trading days where 10Y JGB yields exceeded 1.20%. Actual: 0 days above 1.20%, Required: at least 2 days, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.
Resolved May 3, 2026
Market
LONG wrongJGB10Y
Japanese 10-year government bond yields will trade above 1.20% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-27 at 55% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-03. Brier score 0.303.
Derived from: Wartime regime energy price inflation pressures forcing Bank of Japan policy recalibration despite historical ultra-low rate commitment. Safe haven demand for JGBs offset by domestic inflation expectations from energy import costs.
Probability
55%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Apr 26156d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.