MISSBrier 0.371

Web search found 'New 10-Year JGB Coupon Set at 28-Year High of 2.4 Pct' dated April 2, 2026, and 'Japan bond market: Why 10-year yield hits highest level in 27 years' dated April 10, 2026. JGB yields were rising to multi-decade highs around 2.4%, far above the 0.85% target. Actual: ~2.4%, Required: <0.85% on 2+ days, 2.4% > 0.85% therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Apr 16, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongJGB10Y

Japanese Government Bond 10-year yield (JGB10Y) will trade below 0.85% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Middle East conflict drives safe haven demand for non-dollar sovereign debt

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-27 at 61% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-16. Brier score 0.371.

Derived from: Actor intelligence shows Japan pursuing 'strategic energy security concerns' management. Multiple zero-Nash equilibrium scenarios create safe haven flows. Japan's defensive positioning during wartime regime attracts sovereign debt demand as USD alternative.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 27

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Japanese Government Bond 10-year yield (JGB10Y) will trade below 0.85% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Middle East conflict drives safe haven demand for non-dollar sovereign debt

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