Israel will conduct a confirmed direct military strike specifically targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure (not Hezbollah or proxy targets) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 46% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Derived from the Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, bearish market assessment, 60% confidence) which structurally favors conflict; narrower than the previously denied broader Israel-Iran strike prediction, so calibrated lower given the higher specificity bar (direct nuclear-infrastructure strike vs. any strike).

Probability: 46%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026.

geopolitical5%

Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 14 days.

geopolitical76%HIT

China will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure (developer bailout, mortgage rate cut, or funding facility) within 30 days.

geopolitical28%

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Iran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days

geopolitical45%EXPIRED

Israel will conduct a confirmed direct military strike specifically targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure (not Hezbollah or proxy targets) within 30 days.

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