China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium is 'Gray zone escalation / Economic deterrence' at p=100% (fragile stability, 30% coalition stability), not kinetic invasion. Escalation probability of 53% reflects continued gray-zone pressure, not an amphibious invasion scenario. Aligns closely with crowd price of 4% (Polymarket #567621).

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 115 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 93d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel will conduct a confirmed direct military strike specifically targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure (not Hezbollah or proxy targets) within 30 days.

geopolitical46%

Israel will conduct at least one confirmed airstrike targeting Hezbollah or Iranian-linked military infrastructure in Lebanon within 14 days.

geopolitical77%HIT

China will announce a new export restriction targeting rare earth minerals or critical technology components aimed at US firms within 14 days.

geopolitical27%MISS

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China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026.

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