China will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure (developer bailout, mortgage rate cut, or funding facility) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 28% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Bayesian China Property/Stimulus Dilemma: most likely equilibrium is 'targeted property bailout' vs 'long China recovery' (mixed, 70% confidence), fitting ongoing PBOC/central government support signals.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 14 days.

geopolitical76%HIT

Iran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days

geopolitical45%EXPIRED

OPEC+ will announce a production quota increase at its December 2026 ministerial meeting

geopolitical26%

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China will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure (developer bailout, mortgage rate cut, or funding facility) within 30 days.

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